May sales rose to 3,120, a new record high for the month thanks to a significant gain in apartment condominium sales. While the monthly gains have not outweighed earlier declines, this does reflect a shift from the declines reported at the start of the year. At the same time, we continue to see fewer new listings on the market than last year, causing inventory levels to fall.
With a sales-to-new-listings ratio of 85% and months of supply of one month, conditions continue to favour the seller placing further upward pressure on home prices. Persistently tight market conditions drove further price growth this month.
In May, the unadjusted benchmark price reached $557,000, over one per cent higher than last month and nearly 3% higher than last year’s monthly peak price of $543,000.
Jason Streich
Greater Calgary Real Estate
403 807 2204
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Persistent sellers’ market conditions placed further upward pressure on home prices. After 4 months of gains, the total unadjusted benchmark price reached $550,800, nearly 2% higher than last month and a new monthly record high for the city.
In April, sales reached 2,690 units compared to the 3,133 new listings. With a sales to-new-listings ratio of 86%, inventories declined by 34% compared to last year and are over 45% below long-term averages for April.
While sales have eased by 21% compared to last year, the steep decline in supply has caused the months of supply to ease to just over one month. This reflects tighter market conditions than earlier in the year and compared to conditions reported last April.
If you or someone you know have questions about how this may impact your home selling or buying decision, send me a message!
Jason Streich
Greater Calgary Real Estate
403 807 2204
jstriech@shaw.ca
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Sales and new listings have improved over the levels reported at the beginning of the year. As a result, the spread between sales and new listings supported some expected monthly inventory level gains.
However, the 3,233 available units reflected the lowest March inventory levels since 2006 and left the months of supply just above one month, firmly in the seller’s territory.
While conditions are not as tight as last March, low inventory levels leave purchasers with limited choice, once again driving up home prices. Total unadjusted residential home prices reached $541,800 in March, a 2% gain over last month and nearly 1% higher than prices reported last year.
While prices remain below the May 2022 high of $546,000, the pace of price growth over the first quarter has been stronger than expected due to the persistent seller’s market conditions. March recorded 3,318 new listings compared to the 2,432 sales, leaving the sales-to-new listings ratio relatively high at 73%. However, both sales and new listings have eased by 40% compared to levels reported last March.
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Jason Streich
Greater Calgary Real Estate
403 807 2204
jstriech@shaw.ca
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The level of new listings in January fell to the lowest levels seen since the late 90s. Sales activity slowed compared to the high levels reported last year but remained consistent with long-term trends. Detached homes only comprised 47% of all sales.
With 2,451 units available in inventory, levels remain 43% lower than long-term trends for the month. Homes priced under $500,000 reported year over-year inventory declines of nearly 30% while inventory levels improved for homes prices above that level.
The benchmark price reached $520,900, 5% higher than last January, but still well below the May 2022 high of $546,000.
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Jason Streich
Greater Calgary Real Estate
403 807 2204
jstriech@shaw.ca
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“Elevated lending rates are expected to weigh on sales in 2023, bringing levels down from the record-high in 2022 but with forecasted sales of 25,921, levels are still expected to be higher than the activity reported before the pandemic. Recent growth in migration and employment is expected to help offset the impact of higher lending rates, keeping annual sales activity higher than levels achieved throughout the 2015 to 2019 period. The growth in new listings in 2022 was not enough to offset the gains in sales and supply levels have remained low, especially for lower-priced product. The higher lending rates are also expected to weigh on listings growth in 2023 as it has become more challenging for a move up buyer. While improved starts are expected to help support supply growth, thanks to the strong migration levels, supply levels are not expected to report significant gains.
The low starting point and limited upward pressure on supply in 2023 is expected to prevent any significant downward pressure on prices as demand normalizes. However, conditions are expected to vary depending on price range and property type. Higher-priced homes are expected to see some downward price pressure as that segment of the market is not experiencing the same supply constraints.Meanwhile, supply declines relative to sales for lower priced properties are expected to continue to support modest price growth. Declines in the upper end of the market are expected to offset gains in the lower end of the market as total residential prices in Calgary are expected to stabilize in 2023.”
Jason Streich
Greater Calgary Real Estate
403 807 2204
jstriech@shaw.ca
Read More | CREB Forecast Calgary & Region Yearly Outlook Report
"Across Canada, monthly average housing prices have tumbled almost 20% from their peak levels last year as several negative forces have touched down, including a series of interest rate hikes and a slowing economy. During the same period, housing prices in the Prairies dipped by an average of 6%. In Alberta, prices will decline 5.6% - averaging about $418,000."
Jason Streich
Greater Calgary Real Estate
403 807 2204
jstriech@shaw.ca
Read More | Outperforming The Market-Home Prices Faring Better in Prairies | Calgary Herald
The target for the overnight rate increased to 4.5%, with the Bank Rate at 4.75% and the deposit rate at 4.5%. Quantitative tightening will continue. Inflation remains high and broadly based globally, but is trending down in several countries, reflecting lower energy prices and improvements to supply chains.
In the US and Europe, slowing economies are proving to be more resilient than at the time of the Bank’s October Monetary Policy Report (MPR). China’s lifting of COVID-19 restrictions revised the growth forecast and poses an upside risk to commodity prices. Russia’s war on Ukraine is still a source of uncertainty and financial conditions remain restrictive. The Canadian dollar has been relatively stable against the US dollar.
It’s estimated that the global economy grew about 3.5% in 2022, but will slow to about 2% in 2023 and then grow to 2.5% in 2024. Economic growth in Canada is stronger and the economy remains in excess demand. The labour market is tight as the unemployment rate is near historic lows. Businesses, however, are reporting ongoing difficulty finding workers.
There’s evidence that the restrictive monetary policy is slowing activity, especially household spending. Services and business investments are expected too slow in addition to weaker foreign demand helping to allow supply to catch up with demand.
It’s estimated that Canada’s economy grew by 3.6% in 2022 but is expected to stall through to the middle of 2023, and then picking up again later in the year. GDP is expected to grow 1% in 2023 and 2% in 2024. Inflation has declined from 8.1% in June to 6.3% in December, reflecting lower gasoline prices and durable goods.
Canadians are still feeling the hardship of high inflation in their essential household expenses, with persistent price increases for food and shelter. Short-term inflation is expected to remain elevated but inflation is projected to come down significantly this year.
Governing Council decided to increase the policy interest rate by a further 25 basis points. Governing Council is prepared to increase the policy rate further if needed to return inflation to the 2% target, and remains resolute in its commitment to restoring price stability for Canadians.
Reach out with your questions in regards to how this impacts your home buying or selling decision.
Jason Streich
Greater Calgary Real Estate
403 807 2204
jstriech@shaw.ca
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December sales eased, but slowing sales over the 2nd half of 2022 were not enough to offset earlier gains as sales reached a record high of 29,672 units in 2022.The pullback in sales was also met with pullback in new listings, causing further declines in inventory levels. As of December, there were 2,214 units available, making it the lowest level of inventory reported for December in over a decade.
Benchmark prices eased to $518,800, down nearly 5% from the peak price in May but almost 8% higher than last December. While prices have trended down annually, they remain over 12% higher than last year’s levels. Overall, the housing market in 2022 generally outperformed expectations both in terms of sales and price growth.
If you or someone you know have questions about how this may impact your home selling or buying decision, send me a message!
Jason Streich
Greater Calgary Real Estate
403 807 2204
jstriech@shaw.ca
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The Bank of Canada today increased its target for the overnight rate to 4.25%, with the Bank Rate at 4.5% and the deposit rate at 4.25%. The Bank is also continuing its policy of quantitative tightening.
Inflation around the world remains high and broadly based. Global economic growth is slowing, although it is proving more resilient than was expected at the time of the October Monetary Policy Report (MPR).
In Canada, GDP growth in the 3rd quarter was stronger than expected, and the economy continued to operate in excess demand. Canada’s labor market remains tight, with unemployment near historic lows.
While commodity exports have been strong, there is growing evidence that tighter monetary policy is restraining domestic demand: consumption moderated in the third quarter, and housing market activity continues to decline.
Overall, the data since the October MPR support the Bank’s outlook that growth will essentially stall through the end of this year and the first half of next year.
CPI inflation remained at 6.9% in October, with many of the goods and services Canadians regularly buy showing large price increases. Measures of core inflation remain around 5%.
Looking ahead, Governing Council will be considering whether the policy interest rate needs to rise further to bring supply and demand back into balance and return inflation to target.
Quantitative tightening is complementing increases in the policy rate. We are resolute in our commitment to achieving the 2% inflation target and restoring price stability for Canadians.
Jason Streich
Greater Calgary Real Estate
403 807 2204
jstriech@shaw.ca
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Sales slowed to 1,648 units, a year-over-year decline of 22%, but 12% above the 10-year average. Year-to-date sales remain nearly 10% above last year’s record high. The year-to-date sales growth has been driven by a surge in both apartment condominium and row sales.
There was a pullback in new listings and inventories fell to the lowest level reported in November since 2005. The pullback in both sales and new listings kept the months of supply relatively tight at below two months.
The tightest conditions are occurring in the lower-price ranges as supply growth has mostly been driven by gains in the upper end of the market.
Despite the lower supply levels, prices have trended down from the peak reached in May of this year. Even with the adjustments that have occurred, November benchmark prices continue to remain nearly nine per cent higher than levels reported last year.
Jason Streich
Greater Calgary Real Estate
403 807 2204
jstriech@shaw.ca
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“Sales actually popped up from September to October, and the decline in prices on a month-to-month basis got smaller for the fourth month in a row,” says CREA’s Senior Economist, Shaun Cathcart.
Wondering how this impacts your home buying or selling decision? Are you interested in moving out of the province? Connect with me to discuss your options and for a trusted referral.
Jason Streich
Greater Calgary Real Estate
403 807 2204
jstriech@shaw.ca
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October sales eased compared to last year’s levels, mostly to slower activity in the detached sector. However, with 1,857 sales this month, levels are still stronger than long-term trends and activity reported prior to the pandemic. Year-to-date sales have reached 26,823 and with only 2 months to go, 2022 will likely post a record year in terms of sales.
New listings also trended down this month causing the sales-to-new-listings ratio to rise to 85% and inventories to trend down. Much of the inventory decline has been driven by product priced below $500,000. While conditions are not a tight as what was seen earlier in the year, with only 2 months of supply, conditions remain tighter than historical levels.
We are also seeing divergent trends in the market with conditions continuing to favour the seller in the lower-price ranges and shifting to more balanced conditions in the upper-price ranges. As of October, prices have eased by 4% relative to the highs reached in May. This is considered a relatively small adjustment when considering price movements in other large cities.
It is also important to note that the October benchmark price is still nearly 10% higher than levels reported last year.
Jason Streich
Greater Calgary Real Estate
403 807 2204
jstriech@shaw.ca
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When the overnight rate is increased, it becomes more expensive to borrow money. The increased costs of borrowing money are shifted from the bank onto the consumer by increasing the Prime Rate.
Pre-Approvals are likely to decrease.
Fixed-Rate Mortgages remain the same.
Adjustable Rate Mortgages will increase according to the new Prime Rate minus your discount. (Expect information in the mail).
Static Variable Mortgages payments remain the same but a portion of interest paid to the lender will change.
Reach out with your questions anytime. I can introduce you to a mortgage broker who would be happy to go over your options with you and help you find a mortgage that you're most comfortable with.
Jason Streich
Greater Calgary Real Estate
403 807 2204
jstriech@shaw.ca
Did you hear the news? The BoC increased the overnight lending rate by 0.75%, which is another increase for the 5th time in a row. The Prime rate is expected to increase by 0.75% to 5.45% and Variable rate mortgages will increase by 0.75%.
The Bank’s committed to price stability and will continue to do what is required to achieve a 2% inflation target. As the effects of monetary tightening work their way through the economy, the BoC will assess how much higher interest rates need to go to return inflation to its target. The current inflation rate is measured at 7.6% decreasing from 8.1% in the previous month.
The next announcement is scheduled for October 26th and there's certainly hope that October will be more positive.
Jason Streich
Greater Calgary Real Estate
403 807 2204
jstriech@shaw.ca
August sales are comparable to the strong levels recorded last year and well above long-term trends for the month. While sales have remained relatively strong, there still a shift towards more affordable options as the year-over-year pullback in detached sales was nearly matched by gains for multi-family product types.
New listings continue to trend down, preventing any supply gains or a substantial shift in the months of supply. Despite year-over-year gains in new listings, the spread between new listings and sales this month narrowed compared to the past three months.
This caused total inventory to trend down and prevented any significant shift in the months of supply. The months of supply in August remained at just above two months, not at tight as earlier in the year, but still below levels traditionally seen this time of year.
For the third month in a row, benchmark prices eased declining to $531,800. While the reduction reflects shifting market conditions, it is important to note that previous gains are not lost, and prices remain over 11% higher than last year.
Jason Streich
Greater Calgary Real Estate
403 807 2204
jstriech@shaw.ca
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